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Voting Guide to the Primary Election Some people say that democracy ensures we get the government we deserve. Nonsense. That’s bureaucracy. Democracy ensures we get the elected officials we deserve, as is about to happen in March’s California primary election. The primary has two distinguishing marks. First, it’s now held much earlier than in the past, so our populous and influential state won’t somehow be rendered insignificant in the presidential nominating process. Second, it’s an "open" primary, meaning Democrats and Republicans can mess with the other party’s nomination process, or maybe prevent Ralph Nader from being the Green Party presidential candidate. How should you vote? Here’s your complete pocket guide. Deciding on candidates. The truth is, you won’t decide who to vote for until Saturday, March 4th, so you can relax until then. You’ll put the sample ballot out on the dining room table and talk about the candidates and propositions with your spouse. Then you’ll both plan to vote the same way. You can ignore all political advertising, since it contains nothing useful for making your decisions. Deciding on propositions. You can’t. There are 21 of them, including Proposition 24, which was removed from the ballot by the California Supreme Court. So, except for Prop 24, so you won’t make any decisions until you’re in the voting booth, shaking your head and asking yourself, "Isn’t this the Legislature’s job?" Voting. Blacken the oval to the left of any candidate or to the left of YES or NO. Don’t vote for more than the allowed number of candidates. Why do I mention this? You would be amazed at the number of "overvotes" that appear on Nevada County ballots. An overvote invalidates your vote for an office. Predicting the results. With 0% of the precincts reporting, I will predict selected Nevada County election results. President. Most Republican candidates will have dropped out by election day, and I predict George W. Bush will get the Republican convention delegates, although John McCain is the better choice. On the Democrat side, it will be Gore, when Bradley would have been the better candidate. Note that the Democrats assign convention delegates proportionally, while Republicans do winner-take-all. U.S. Representative. The big vote-getter? Wally Herger. Colorful, charming, and devoted to his constituency (his large contributors). And as goes the primary, so goes the general election. United States Senator. Love her or hate her, Dianne Feinstein. On the Republican side, Tom Campbell, who may win in November if he can find $40 million to spend. State Senator. Karen Knecht in Nevada County (local girl makes good), with Oller (the Tim Leslie endorsee) sweeping the nomination. Scott Gruendl will represent the Democrats and will lose with dignity in the general election. Member of the State Assembly. The big vote-getter? Sam Aanestad, in the county and the district. This proves that once you’re elected, you’ll stay elected, until you term out. County Supervisors. Candidates will fight hard and spend hard, knowing that it’s important to win in the primary to avoid spending again in a general election runoff. All this for a $28,000/year job. District 2. A toss-up. Clarke and Conley are spending about the same, and it’s hard to imagine voters in District 2 electing a supervisor radically different from Karen Knecht. District 5. Too close to call. Barbara Green is Sam Dardick’s anointee and Clyde Hall is not. They are spending about the same. It will be a question of who will galvanize voters on the ridge and in Truckee. Sadly, candidates usually don’t campaign seriously in Truckee, and this could be costly. Third candidate Bill Steele is older and entirely unconventional, spending virtually no money. District 1. Peter Van Zant is the incumbent, and astute enough to have raised $29,977 while opponent Greg Seghezzi reports only $11,976. Personality and spending determine this race. Fearing a costly runoff, I’d speculate that both candidates have contacted third candidate Pat Ingram, asking him to drop out. Perhaps Van Zant can color Seghezzi as the "tool of the developers," while Seghezzi can paint Van Zant as the "puppet of the RQC." Incredibly, both will promise "good government." Given the spending, I predict Peter Van Zant by a margin of 5 to 4. And who can forget, the six candidates for Nevada City City Council, running for three open positions? I can. Barry Schoenborn is a technical writer, and an 11-year resident of Nevada County. His column appears the second Saturday of the month. You can write to him at barry@wvswrite.com. The opinions of columnists are not necessarily those of The Union. |